Pro-environment Democrats gain influence in Congress and states, but lose key GOP allies

Pro-environment Democrats gain influence in Congress and states, but lose key GOP allies
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This week’s elections opened up a few avenues for progress on clean energy and climate, while erecting roadblocks for others. Pro-environment Democrats will have newfound influence in Congress and in the states, but fewer bipartisan allies for pursuing comprehensive solutions.

At the federal level, the biggest changes come from Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives and the crucial committee chairmanships that come with it. Rep. Eddie Bernice JohnsonEddie Bernice JohnsonPelosi should acknowledge realities with proposed climate change committee House Dems split on how to tackle climate change Dems to hold two days of hearings on climate MORE (D-Texas) is in line to take over the gavel of the House Science Committee, a position that Rep. Lamar SmithLamar Seeligson SmithTexas New Members 2019 Pro-environment Democrats gain influence in Congress and states, but lose key GOP allies Overnight Energy: Trump expects to weigh in on Zinke's future soon | EPA relaxes air permitting standard | House Science panel in for big changes | Update on midterm ballot measures MORE (R-Texas) had used to raise spurious doubts about climate science. Rep. Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-N.J.), who is expected to chair the Energy and Commerce Committee, has strongly criticized Trump administration efforts to bailout the coal industry.

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Most House Democrats campaigned on vague support for clean energy without endorsing specific policies, focusing instead on health care and other issues. Meanwhile, the ranks of Republican allies have dwindled, dampening hopes for bipartisan initiatives. Rep. Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis CurbeloFlorida New Members 2019 3 ways House Dems can fight climate change when sweeping policy is off the table Defeated Republicans mocked by Trump fire back at president MORE (R-Fla.), author of an ambitious carbon tax proposal, lost his seat. Of the five other House Republicans who voted against a resolution denouncing even the idea of a carbon tax, one has retired and another, Rep. Mia LoveLudmya (Mia) LoveMia Love pulls ahead in Utah race as judge dismisses her lawsuit Judge tosses Mia Love lawsuit to halt vote count Election Countdown: Florida Senate race heads to hand recount | Dem flips Maine House seat | New 2020 trend - the 'friend-raiser' | Ad war intensifies in Mississippi runoff | Blue wave batters California GOP MORE (R-Utah), narrowly trails in her bid for re-election. More broadly, nearly half of the 45 Republican members of the bipartisan House Climate Solutions Caucus that Curbelo co-founded were defeated or are retiring.

In the Senate, the authors of two of the most sweeping climate bills, Sen. Sheldon WhitehouseSheldon WhitehouseSenators introduce Trump-backed criminal justice bill 3 ways House Dems can fight climate change when sweeping policy is off the table Hillicon Valley: Trump eyes staff shake-up | Amazon taps NYC, Northern Virginia for new offices | What it will mean for DC | Tech firms buck Trump on cyber pact | Defense official warns against hacking back MORE (D-R.I.) and Sen. Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersDems wonder if Sherrod Brown could be their magic man My fellow Democrats should watch their language: Economic equality is not a rational societal goal As Democrats gear up to challenge Trump in 2020, the key political divide will be metropolitan versus rural MORE (I-Vt.), easily won re-election. But the uptick in the Republican margin will make it all the more difficult for Democrats to regain a majority in the Senate in 2020, let alone a filibuster-proof one. A padded margin also paves the way for confirming conservative cabinet secretaries and judges, who play pivotal roles in environmental disputes.

With Congress gridlocked, state policies are becoming ever more important. There, the lessons from this week’s elections are mixed.

Prices on carbon emissions have long been endorsed by economists but unpopular with voters. Once again, voters in Washington state defeated a ballot initiative that would have imposed a fee on carbon emissions. As I explained last month, the revenue would have been used to create a clean energy fund, unlike a similarly unsuccessful 2016 proposal that would have rebated the revenue. On the other hand, California voters upheld their state’s hike in gasoline taxes.

Mandates for clean or renewable electricity attract less scholarly support, but tend to be more popular with voters. That trend continued this week in some but not all states. Nevada voters easily passed Question 6, which calls for 50 percent renewable electricity by 2030; they’ll need to pass it again in 2020 for the target to become law. Meanwhile, six newly elected Democratic governors campaigned in support of 100 percent clean or renewable electricity by 2050 or sooner, and three others for 50 percent by 2030. They’ll be working with state legislatures with more Democratic legislators than in past years. California and Hawaii have already enacted commitments for 100 percent by 2045.

Even where renewable electricity mandates did not pass, prospects for cleaner electricity remain bright. Arizona voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have required 50 percent renewable electricity by 2030. Still, the state’s largest utility has been cooperating with regulators as they consider strengthening the state’s clean electricity mandates. Earlier this year in Michigan, a proposed mandate was pulled from the ballot after environmentalists and utilities compromised on a plan to boost energy efficiency and renewable electricity.

Proposals to restrict oil and gas drilling drew mixed results. In Colorado, voters rejected a measure that would have banned new oil and gas drilling within 2,500 feet of homes and schools. However, Florida voters passed a peculiar proposal that simultaneously bans offshore drilling and indoor vaping.

Overall, it was a disappointing night for advocates of carbon pricing, even as bright spots emerged for clean electricity mandates. That extends a pattern of achieving far steeper emissions reductions from power plants than from other sectors. Meanwhile, we’ll soon have a House of Representatives led by supporters of climate science and clean energy, but with fewer Republican allies than ever.

Unfortunately, battling to a draw won’t be enough to rein in climate change. More decisive victories are needed as carbon dioxide continues to accumulate in the atmosphere and temperatures continue to climb. This week’s mixed results only heighten the urgency for a paradigm shift in climate policy in 2020 and beyond.

Daniel Cohan is an associate professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Rice University.